Clutch or Kick
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.05
9.31 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $5.44 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.03%
1,762 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,768 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 30 | $64.35 99 gems | 39.4% | 64 | 58.9 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 30 | $43.74 67.29 gems | 26.8% | 52 | 58.9 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 30 | $25.60 39.38 gems | 15.7% | 56 | 59.1 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | NQZ (Glitter) | Shanghai 2024sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $5.08 7.81 gems | 4.7% | 86 | 88.4 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $3.07 4.72 gems | 2.8% | 93 | 88.4 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | ultimate (Glitter) | Shanghai 2024sticker · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.58 2.43 gems | 2.9% | 198 | 176.8 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $1.32 2.03 gems | 2.4% | 172 | 176.8 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | m0NESY (Glitter) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.79 1.22 gems | 2.9% | 347 | 353.6 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Eternal Fire (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.52 0.8 gems | 1.9% | 367 | 353.6 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | aNdu (Glitter) | Shanghai 2024sticker · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 0.5% | 333 | 353.6 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | m0NESY (Glitter) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · MythicalCode: Lunari$6.059.31 gems$0.791.22 gems0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:38 UTC | $6.05 | 89.96% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.7%classified 3.3%remarkable 20.0%Mythical 70.0%best hit —