Coffee Break
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.08
17.04 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $9.96 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.73%
964 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 970 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $54.84 84.37 gems | 27.5% | 44 | 48.5 | 0.91× |
| P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $42.39 65.21 gems | 21.3% | 40 | 48.5 | 0.82× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $20.18 31.05 gems | 20.3% | 109 | 97.0 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $14.61 22.47 gems | 14.7% | 98 | 97.0 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $9.20 14.16 gems | 9.2% | 91 | 97.0 | 0.94× |
| Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $3.54 5.44 gems | 3.5% | 113 | 97.0 | 1.16× |
| USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $1.44 2.21 gems | 1.4% | 105 | 97.0 | 1.08× |
| CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $1.12 1.73 gems | 1.1% | 94 | 97.0 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.59 0.91 gems | 0.9% | 136 | 145.5 | 0.93× |
| R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 15.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 140 | 145.5 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialCODE-NAPE$11.0817.04 gems$9.2014.16 gems0.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.08 | 89.95% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 5.0%restricted 30.0%violet 10.0%industrial 10.0%mil spec 10.0%Rare 10.0%milspec 10.0%#b0c3d9 15.0%best hit —