Cold & Hard
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.34
9.75 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $5.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.61%
3,443 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,469 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $99.35 153 gems | 17.4% | 41 | 34.7 | 1.18× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $90.80 140 gems | 15.9% | 41 | 34.7 | 1.18× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $38.50 59.23 gems | 20.3% | 100 | 104.1 | 0.96× |
| Tec-9 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $28.57 43.95 gems | 15.0% | 87 | 104.1 | 0.84× |
| Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $25.48 39.2 gems | 13.4% | 108 | 104.1 | 1.04× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 20 | $11.51 17.7 gems | 10.1% | 182 | 173.5 | 1.05× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.28 1.97 gems | 4.5% | 647 | 693.8 | 0.93× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1 | 20.0% | $0.53 0.82 gems | 1.9% | 725 | 693.8 | 1.04× |
| XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.8% | 670 | 693.8 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 24.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.7% | 868 | 832.6 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedCodeWILDCS 2K LB$6.349.75 gems$25.4839.2 gems4.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.34 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 20.0%covert knife 1.0%mil spec 24.0%restricted 6.0%#87c7ff 5.0%industrial 44.0%best hit —