Cold as Ice
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$226.10
348 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $203.49 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
135.38%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $770 1,185 gems | 56.8% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 15.0% | $536 825 gems | 39.5% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $64.95 99.93 gems | 3.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.39 5.22 gems | 0.3% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · #5E98D9 | 20.0% | $1.77 2.73 gems | 0.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertRamen Noodles$226348 gems$7701,185 gems3.41x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$226348 gems$64.9599.93 gems0.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $226 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%sunny 15.0%Classified 10.0%restricted 20.0%#5E98D9 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $770 (3.41x)