Come Up

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.50

2.31 gems

Advertised RTP

89.74%

EV $1.35 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.27%

7,843 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.52%±5.661,185 openings

7 days

90.02%±2.336,991 openings

30 days

90.27%±2.207,843 openings

since tracking started

90.27%±2.207,843 openings

87.0%93.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,185	93.52%±5.66	+1.3σ	odds
7d	6,991	90.02%±2.33	+0.2σ	odds
30d	7,843	90.27%±2.20	+0.5σ	odds
All	7,843	90.27%±2.20	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,965 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$3.89 5.99 gems	28.9%	779	796.5	0.98×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	10.0%	$3.68 5.66 gems	27.3%	830	796.5	1.04×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$2.19 3.37 gems	32.5%	1,596	1593.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	10.0%	$1.46 2.24 gems	10.8%	809	796.5	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9	25.0%	$0.02 0.03 gems	0.4%	1,952	1991.2	0.98×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 gems	0.1%	1,999	1991.3	1.00×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9$1.502.31 gems$0.020.03 gems0.01x52m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerKyDeex$1.502.31 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x52m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.502.31 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x53m

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9KyDeex$1.502.31 gems$0.020.03 gems0.01x53m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.502.31 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x58m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerKyDeex$1.502.31 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x58m

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.502.31 gems$3.895.99 gems2.59x58m

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9KyDeex$1.502.31 gems$0.020.03 gems0.01x58m

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9$1.502.31 gems$0.020.03 gems0.01x1h

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.502.31 gems$2.193.37 gems1.46x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$1.50	89.74%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 10.0%#d32ee6 10.0%classified 20.0%Restricted 10.0%#B0C3D9 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —