Construction Worker
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.41
80.63 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $47.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.56%
160 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $196 302 gems | 20.8% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.33× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $146 225 gems | 46.6% | 24 | 24.9 | 0.96× |
| XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $61.13 94.05 gems | 25.9% | 37 | 33.2 | 1.11× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $27.20 41.84 gems | 2.9% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $22.11 34.01 gems | 2.3% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $8.38 12.89 gems | 0.9% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| MP5-SD | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $3.80 5.85 gems | 0.4% | 12 | 8.3 | 1.45× |
| MP9 | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.1% | 28 | 33.2 | 0.84× |
| G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.1% | 34 | 33.2 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil specArmands Miesnieks$52.4180.63 gems$61.1394.05 gems1.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $52.41 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%Classified 15.0%mil spec 40.0%covert 5.0%restricted 5.0%industrial 5.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%best hit —