Containment Zone
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.19
9.52 gems
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $5.56 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.36%
8,727 openings, odds method
Variance
27.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 71
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,787 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$6.199.52 gems$7131,097 gems115.2x
Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$6.199.52 gems$7131,097 gems115.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.19 | 89.92% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#4B69FF 0.1%other 48.7%restricted 10.5%extraordinary 0.8%covert 3.0%mil spec 7.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $713 (115.2x)