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Contraband Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$153.93
237 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $138.54 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.15%
216 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
34 openings · below min
7 days
106.73%±38.24152 openings
30 days
116.15%±32.08216 openings
since tracking started
116.15%±32.08216 openings
57.5%139.0%220.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h34138.99%±80.9—odds
7d152106.73%±38.2+0.9σodds
30d216116.15%±32.1+1.6σodds
All216116.15%±32.1+1.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 100$2,611 4,017 gems18.8%52.22.31×
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 50$1,632 2,511 gems23.6%34.30.69×
Souvenir AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 50$1,136 1,747 gems16.4%84.31.85×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 40$480 738 gems8.7%55.40.93×
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 40$217 334 gems3.9%45.40.74×
★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary1 in 20$101 155 gems3.6%610.80.56×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20$80.60 124 gems2.9%1010.80.93×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary10.0%$69.55 107 gems5.0%2821.61.30×
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert35.0%$39.33 60.5 gems9.9%7375.60.97×
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife35.0%$28.20 43.38 gems7.1%7475.60.98×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$2,6114,017 gems16.96x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$2,6114,017 gems16.96x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$2,6114,017 gems16.96x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponmotsibaerli$154237 gems$2,6114,017 gems16.96x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$2,6114,017 gems16.96x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$154237 gems$1,6322,511 gems10.60x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$154237 gems$1,6322,511 gems10.60x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$154237 gems$1,6322,511 gems10.60x
Souvenir AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponHeaded$154237 gems$1,1361,747 gems7.38x
Souvenir AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$1,1361,747 gems7.38x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary$154237 gems$101155 gems0.65x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert$154237 gems$39.3360.5 gems0.26x
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$154237 gems$28.2043.38 gems0.18x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert$154237 gems$39.3360.5 gems0.26x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert$154237 gems$39.3360.5 gems0.26x
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert kniferami$154237 gems$28.2043.38 gems0.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$154237 gems$480738 gems3.12x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert$154237 gems$39.3360.5 gems0.26x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert$154237 gems$39.3360.5 gems0.26x
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1k LB - Code *STV*$154237 gems$69.55107 gems0.45x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$15490.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 5.5%covert 37.0%extraordinary 17.5%Extraordinary 5.0%covert knife 35.0%best hit $2,611 (16.96x)