Convict Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.40
22.16 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.96 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.86%
2,129 openings, odds method
Variance
17.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,165 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $763 1,174 gems | 29.4% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $241 370 gems | 18.6% | 24 | 21.7 | 1.11× |
| Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 67 | $110 170 gems | 12.8% | 22 | 32.5 | 0.68× |
| AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $70.34 108 gems | 10.9% | 50 | 43.3 | 1.15× |
| Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $29.25 45 gems | 6.8% | 75 | 65.0 | 1.15× |
| Special Agent Ava | FBIagent · master | 1 in 25 | $21.81 33.56 gems | 6.7% | 71 | 86.6 | 0.82× |
| Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 20 | $18.13 27.89 gems | 7.0% | 102 | 108.3 | 0.94× |
| Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 17 | $6.79 10.44 gems | 3.1% | 142 | 129.9 | 1.09× |
| MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 14 | $3.25 5 gems | 1.8% | 148 | 151.6 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New)weapon · Common | 70.0% | $0.55 0.84 gems | 2.9% | 1,521 | 1515.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.40 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%covert 4.0%Mythical 1.5%classified 2.0%master 4.0%blue 5.0%#8847ff 6.0%industrial 7.0%Common 70.0%best hit $763 (53.00x)