Copium Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.58
34.74 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $20.32 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
39.90%
2,466 openings, odds method
Variance
3840.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2,466 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,500 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $139K 214,054 gems | 68.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 5,000 | $10.6K 16,244 gems | 10.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 93 | $215 331 gems | 11.3% | 32 | 26.8 | 1.20× |
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 53 | $70.86 109 gems | 6.6% | 47 | 47.5 | 0.99× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $27.01 41.55 gems | 2.7% | 44 | 50.0 | 0.88× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.5% | 1,107 | 1125.0 | 0.98× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 1,269 | 1250.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $22.58 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%legendary 0.0%industrial 1.1%consumer 98.9%best hit $10.6K (467.6x)