Cops and Robbers
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.44
29.9 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.49 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.70%
927 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,021 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $193 296 gems | 22.0% | 28 | 20.4 | 1.37× |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet | 13.0% | $33.38 51.36 gems | 24.8% | 122 | 132.7 | 0.92× |
| Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $27.61 42.47 gems | 31.6% | 227 | 204.2 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $13.62 20.95 gems | 11.7% | 148 | 153.1 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $5.77 8.87 gems | 4.9% | 144 | 153.1 | 0.94× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $5.61 8.63 gems | 4.8% | 147 | 153.1 | 0.96× |
| G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 0.2% | 205 | 204.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restrictedWise Axolotl$19.4429.9 gems$27.6142.47 gems1.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $19.44 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%violet 13.0%restricted 35.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Mythical 15.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —