Cortisol Spike
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.99
79.99 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $46.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.14%
498 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 498 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 33 | $642 988 gems | 41.2% | 21 | 14.9 | 1.41× |
| Souvenir AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 33 | $401 617 gems | 25.7% | 17 | 14.9 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | Falak (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce6 | 1 in 25 | $77.35 119 gems | 6.6% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Lil' Pig (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $55.85 85.93 gems | 6.0% | 34 | 24.9 | 1.37× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $37.58 57.82 gems | 8.0% | 53 | 49.8 | 1.06× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $17.22 26.49 gems | 5.5% | 74 | 74.7 | 0.99× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $9.78 15.05 gems | 4.2% | 95 | 99.6 | 0.95× |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $5.75 8.85 gems | 2.5% | 86 | 99.6 | 0.86× |
| P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.79 1.21 gems | 0.3% | 98 | 99.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponduccster$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$51.9979.99 gems$642988 gems12.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedthegamblingbandits.com$51.9979.99 gems$9.7815.05 gems0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $51.99 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 6.0%#d32ce6 4.0%classified 45.0%covert 10.0%restricted 15.0%#8847ff 20.0%best hit $642 (12.35x)