Counting Sheep
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.59
101 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $59.03 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.57%
1,454 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,506 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $733 1,127 gems | 86.9% | 120 | 105.4 | 1.14× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $52.94 81.44 gems | 9.0% | 141 | 150.6 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.65 8.7 gems | 1.0% | 165 | 150.6 | 1.10× |
| Charm | Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6 | 15.0% | $3.84 5.9 gems | 1.0% | 227 | 225.9 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 18.0% | $3.61 5.56 gems | 1.1% | 276 | 271.1 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 20.0% | $2.16 3.32 gems | 0.7% | 300 | 301.2 | 1.00× |
| Charm | Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon | 20.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 0.4% | 277 | 301.2 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedTwitchBaleszko$65.59101 gems$5.658.7 gems0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $65.59 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.0%classified 10.0%#d32ce6 15.0%Ancient 18.0%remarkable 20.0%uncommon 20.0%best hit $733 (11.17x)