Crackpot Crunch
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.48
51.5 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $30.12 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.34%
3,032 openings, odds method
Variance
28.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,056 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $2,319 3,568 gems | 38.5% | 12 | 15.3 | 0.79× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $845 1,301 gems | 14.0% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× |
| AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 133 | $423 651 gems | 10.5% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal | 1 in 133 | $159 245 gems | 4.0% | 15 | 22.9 | 0.65× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 80 | $67.09 103 gems | 2.8% | 47 | 38.2 | 1.23× |
| Desert Eagle | Pilot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $50.71 78.01 gems | 2.1% | 44 | 38.2 | 1.15× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $27.20 41.85 gems | 13.5% | 461 | 458.4 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $14.81 22.79 gems | 7.4% | 412 | 458.4 | 0.90× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $7.29 11.21 gems | 3.6% | 474 | 458.4 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 50.0% | $2.13 3.27 gems | 3.5% | 1,559 | 1528.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLonsdale BOSWALL$33.4851.5 gems$7.2911.21 gems0.22x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $33.48 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 30.5%covert 1.8%#eb4b4b 0.8%Immortal 0.8%restricted 16.3%Mythical 50.0%best hit $2,319 (69.29x)