Crime Scene
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.21
8.02 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $4.69 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.37%
4,350 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,439 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $122 188 gems | 26.1% | 38 | 44.4 | 0.86× |
| Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $64.43 99.13 gems | 13.7% | 46 | 44.4 | 1.04× |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $38.64 59.45 gems | 8.2% | 45 | 44.4 | 1.01× |
| FAMAS | Meltdown (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $19.84 30.53 gems | 4.2% | 36 | 44.4 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $7.42 11.42 gems | 1.6% | 47 | 44.4 | 1.06× |
| MAG-7 | Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $4.86 7.48 gems | 15.6% | 648 | 665.8 | 0.97× |
| SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $3.59 5.53 gems | 15.3% | 862 | 887.8 | 0.97× |
| CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.16 3.32 gems | 9.2% | 921 | 887.8 | 1.04× |
| M249 | Impact Drill (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $1.08 1.66 gems | 4.6% | 908 | 887.8 | 1.02× |
| G3SG1 | Stinger (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 1.3% | 888 | 887.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Impact Drill (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer GradezteeekysaiyajiN^$5.218.02 gems$1.081.66 gems0.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $5.21 | 89.89% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%mil spec 1.0%restricted 21.0%classified 21.0%red 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%violet 20.0%best hit —