Crimson Web
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$625.50
962 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $562.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.72%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $4,522 6,957 gems | 40.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 20 | $4,029 6,199 gems | 35.8% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $1,585 2,438 gems | 14.1% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,034 1,590 gems | 9.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $13.36 20.55 gems | 0.5% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.96× |
| SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $6.41 9.86 gems | 0.2% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.10× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $2.11 3.24 gems | 0.1% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× |
| CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $626 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%Immortal 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 40.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $4,522 (7.23x)