Crypto
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$67.94
105 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $61.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.66%
266 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 268 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $207 318 gems | 33.8% | 23 | 26.8 | 0.86× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $103 158 gems | 16.8% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $90.04 139 gems | 14.7% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | First Class (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $61.31 94.32 gems | 10.0% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink | 15.0% | $31.80 48.93 gems | 7.8% | 45 | 40.2 | 1.12× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $27.94 42.98 gems | 6.9% | 26 | 40.2 | 0.65× |
| MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $22.43 34.51 gems | 5.5% | 42 | 40.2 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $18.28 28.13 gems | 4.5% | 50 | 40.2 | 1.24× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$67.94105 gems$103158 gems1.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $67.94 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%classified 40.0%restricted 25.0%pink 15.0%best hit —