CS20 Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.59
2.44 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $1.43 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.56%
13.5K openings, odds method
Variance
85.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 172
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.97% – 123.15%, 13,456 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertX.Profe$$or$1.592.44 gems$7091,092 gems447.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.59 | 89.96% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Immortal 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 12.8%violet 3.2%mil spec 45.7%Rare 34.3%best hit $709 (447.3x)