CT Pack

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.91

4.48 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $2.62 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.50%

3,077 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.74%±14.76390 openings

7 days

91.52%±5.542,771 openings

30 days

90.50%±5.253,077 openings

since tracking started

90.50%±5.253,077 openings

70.5%85.8%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	390	85.74%±14.8	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,771	91.52%±5.54	+0.5σ	odds
30d	3,077	90.50%±5.25	+0.2σ	odds
All	3,077	90.50%±5.25	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Primeiro Tenente \| Brazilian 1st Battalionagent · distinguished	1 in 100	$21.48 33.04 gems	8.2%	30	31.0	0.97×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.35 32.84 gems	8.1%	31	31.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 100	$19.01 29.24 gems	7.3%	35	31.0	1.13×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$18.55 28.54 gems	7.1%	21	31.0	0.68×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$9.19 14.14 gems	10.5%	97	93.1	1.04×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$8.40 12.93 gems	16.0%	166	155.1	1.07×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$4.43 6.82 gems	16.9%	299	310.2	0.96×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	10.0%	$3.35 5.15 gems	12.8%	328	310.2	1.06×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	25.0%	$0.94 1.44 gems	8.9%	797	775.5	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	43.0%	$0.25 0.39 gems	4.2%	1,298	1333.9	0.97×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted$2.914.48 gems$0.941.44 gems0.32x54m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$2.914.48 gems$4.436.82 gems1.52x54m

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$2.914.48 gems$0.250.39 gems0.09x54m

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$2.914.48 gems$9.1914.14 gems3.16x54m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rareTTHD$2.914.48 gems$19.0129.24 gems6.53x54m

Primeiro Tenente | Brazilian 1st Battalionagent · distinguished$2.914.48 gems$21.4833.04 gems7.37x1h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$2.914.48 gems$9.1914.14 gems3.16x1h

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$2.914.48 gems$4.436.82 gems1.52x1h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted$2.914.48 gems$0.941.44 gems0.32x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$2.91	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listeddistinguished 1.0%classified 12.0%rare 1.0%covert 8.0%restricted 10.0%Restricted 25.0%violet 43.0%best hit —