Cursed Gold
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.18
32.58 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.06 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.25%
1,443 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,458 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $549 845 gems | 28.8% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.17× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $102 157 gems | 13.4% | 32 | 36.5 | 0.88× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $76.70 118 gems | 10.1% | 45 | 36.5 | 1.23× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $58.42 89.87 gems | 9.2% | 59 | 43.7 | 1.35× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 33 | $47.79 73.52 gems | 7.5% | 51 | 43.7 | 1.17× |
| AUG | Lil' Pig (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $36.04 55.45 gems | 9.5% | 74 | 72.9 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $21.79 33.53 gems | 5.7% | 68 | 72.9 | 0.93× |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $11.70 18 gems | 4.9% | 100 | 116.6 | 0.86× |
| MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $8.24 12.67 gems | 4.3% | 140 | 145.8 | 0.96× |
| UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet | 60.0% | $2.10 3.23 gems | 6.6% | 872 | 874.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $21.18 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%Extraordinary 3.0%Ancient 3.0%classified 5.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 8.0%violet 60.0%best hit $549 (25.94x)