Cyclops
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$217.59
335 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $195.83 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.44%
338 openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $7,250 11,153 gems | 18.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $3,777 5,811 gems | 19.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,327 3,581 gems | 11.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,625 2,500 gems | 8.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $1,064 1,637 gems | 8.2% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 40 | $493 759 gems | 6.3% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $334 514 gems | 12.8% | 18 | 25.3 | 0.71× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $114 175 gems | 5.8% | 36 | 33.8 | 1.07× |
| AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $37.57 57.8 gems | 4.8% | 82 | 84.5 | 0.97× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $20.68 31.81 gems | 2.6% | 97 | 84.5 | 1.15× |
| FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 25.0% | $11.97 18.41 gems | 1.5% | 85 | 84.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$218335 gems$11.9718.41 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $218 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.5%classified 11.5%#eb4b4b 2.5%mil spec 32.5%Rare 25.0%#d32ee6 25.0%best hit $7,250 (33.32x)