Cypher
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.27
32.73 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $19.15 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.67%
1,107 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,130 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $190 292 gems | 49.6% | 55 | 56.5 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $93.54 144 gems | 24.4% | 61 | 56.5 | 1.08× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $26.08 40.13 gems | 6.8% | 51 | 56.5 | 0.90× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $8.38 12.89 gems | 6.6% | 188 | 169.5 | 1.11× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $7.55 11.61 gems | 7.9% | 234 | 226.0 | 1.04× |
| MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 4.4% | 276 | 282.5 | 0.98× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.3% | 265 | 282.5 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil specKick/HarryJZ$21.2732.73 gems$7.5511.61 gems0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.27 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.0%mil spec 25.0%restricted 5.0%industrial 25.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit —