Dance Floor
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.01
47.7 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $27.90 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.90%
5,008 openings, odds method
Variance
25.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,018 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $1,323 2,036 gems | 47.4% | 45 | 50.2 | 0.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 100 | $809 1,245 gems | 29.0% | 42 | 50.2 | 0.84× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $396 610 gems | 14.2% | 52 | 50.2 | 1.04× |
| Music Kit | Dren, Gunman Taco Truckmusic kit · High Grade | 1 in 14 | $7.37 11.34 gems | 1.8% | 354 | 351.3 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ Music Kit | Blitz Kids, The Good Youthmusic kit · High Grade | 1 in 14 | $7.27 11.18 gems | 1.8% | 313 | 351.3 | 0.89× |
| Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar*music kit · High Grade | 17.0% | $5.62 8.64 gems | 3.4% | 891 | 853.1 | 1.04× |
| Music Kit | The Verkkars, EZ4ENCEmusic kit · blue | 17.0% | $1.72 2.64 gems | 1.0% | 851 | 853.1 | 1.00× |
| Music Kit | bbno$, u mad!music kit · high | 17.0% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 0.9% | 838 | 853.1 | 0.98× |
| Music Kit | 3kliksphilip, Heading for the Sourcemusic kit · high | 32.0% | $0.27 0.42 gems | 0.3% | 1,632 | 1605.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeciganykerek$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$31.0147.7 gems$1,3232,036 gems42.68x
Latest dropsnewest first
Music Kit | bbno$, u mad!music kit · highThomas the termonuclear bomb$31.0147.7 gems$1.492.29 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $31.01 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 2.0%other 1.0%High Grade 31.0%blue 17.0%high 49.0%best hit $1,323 (42.68x)