Danger Zone Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1.82
2.8 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $1.64 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.82%
9,245 openings, odds method
Variance
112.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 192
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
68.41%±63.461,075 openings
7 days
110.91%±23.757,678 openings
30 days
103.82%±21.649,245 openings
since tracking started
103.82%±21.649,245 openings
4.5%70.0%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,07568.41%±63.5−0.7σodds
7d7,678110.91%±23.7+1.7σodds
30d9,245103.82%±21.6+1.3σodds
All9,245103.82%±21.6+1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,348 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$1,506 2,316 gems4.6%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$848 1,305 gems2.6%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$775 1,192 gems2.4%10.5—
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$736 1,132 gems2.2%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$536 825 gems1.6%10.5—
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$500 769 gems1.5%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$497 764 gems1.5%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$388 597 gems1.2%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$348 535 gems1.1%20.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$343 528 gems1.0%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · #EB4B4B1 in 20,000$328 505 gems1.0%20.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$318 489 gems1.0%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 20,000$285 438 gems0.9%10.5—
★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$277 427 gems0.8%10.5—
★ Talon Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$273 419 gems0.8%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$259 399 gems0.8%30.5—
★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$256 393 gems0.8%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$252 388 gems0.8%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$249 383 gems0.8%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 20,000$244 375 gems0.7%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$228 350 gems0.7%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$224 344 gems0.7%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$219 337 gems0.7%10.5—
★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$219 337 gems0.7%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$209 322 gems0.6%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$204 314 gems0.6%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$196 302 gems0.6%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$183 281 gems0.6%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$170 262 gems0.5%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$167 256 gems0.5%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$166 255 gems0.5%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 20,000$156 240 gems0.5%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$149 230 gems0.5%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$149 229 gems0.5%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$145 224 gems0.4%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$130 200 gems0.4%20.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$113 174 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 20,000$113 174 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$112 173 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$109 168 gems0.3%00.5—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$107 164 gems20.8%3529.91.17×
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$106 164 gems0.3%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$101 155 gems0.3%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$99.19 153 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$94.25 145 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$90.62 139 gems0.3%10.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$88.97 137 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 20,000$86.75 133 gems0.3%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 20,000$80.91 124 gems0.2%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$78.42 121 gems0.2%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$77.35 119 gems0.2%20.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$75.14 116 gems0.2%10.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$71.18 110 gems0.2%00.5—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$17.97 27.65 gems3.5%1929.90.64×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$5.02 7.73 gems3.3%10299.61.02×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$4.91 7.55 gems3.2%9899.60.98×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$4.84 7.45 gems3.2%9299.60.92×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$1.20 1.85 gems8.4%1,1131067.31.04×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$1.03 1.58 gems2.0%286298.80.96×
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$0.86 1.32 gems1.7%297298.80.99×
Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$0.80 1.23 gems1.6%296298.80.99×
P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$0.77 1.18 gems1.5%297298.80.99×
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$0.70 1.08 gems1.4%257298.80.86×
Tec-9 | Fubar (Factory New)weapon11.4%$0.38 0.58 gems2.6%1,0791067.31.01×
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare11.4%$0.18 0.28 gems1.3%1,1191067.31.05×
Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.18 0.28 gems1.3%1,0501067.30.98×
SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue11.4%$0.14 0.21 gems1.0%1,0221067.30.96×
MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.13 0.2 gems0.9%1,0991067.31.03×
Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.13 0.2 gems0.9%1,0571067.50.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.822.8 gems$1,5062,316 gems827.3x
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.822.8 gems$7751,192 gems425.6x
★ Talon Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife$1.822.8 gems$285438 gems156.5x
★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert$1.822.8 gems$277427 gems152.4x
★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes$1.822.8 gems$259399 gems142.4x

Latest dropsnewest first

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$1.822.8 gems$0.140.21 gems0.08x
Tec-9 | Fubar (Factory New)weapon$1.822.8 gems$0.380.58 gems0.21x
Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.822.8 gems$0.130.2 gems0.07x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.822.8 gems$0.180.28 gems0.10x
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.822.8 gems$1.031.58 gems0.56x
Tec-9 | Fubar (Factory New)weapon$1.822.8 gems$0.380.58 gems0.21x
Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.822.8 gems$0.130.2 gems0.07x
SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$1.822.8 gems$0.140.21 gems0.08x
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.822.8 gems$0.701.08 gems0.39x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$1.8289.99%69
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.7%gold 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%rare 0.0%other 11.4%knifes 0.0%Covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Immortal 0.0%classified 3.2%mil spec 45.7%restricted 16.0%Rare 11.4%blue 11.4%best hit $1,506 (827.3x)