Dante
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$87.69
135 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $78.91 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.98%
489 openings, odds method
Variance
19.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 489 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 500 | $8,095 12,454 gems | 20.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 125 | $1,398 2,150 gems | 14.2% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $521 801 gems | 13.2% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $332 511 gems | 8.4% | 6 | 9.8 | 0.61× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $162 248 gems | 10.2% | 27 | 24.4 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $81.70 126 gems | 15.5% | 83 | 73.3 | 1.13× |
| MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $56.76 87.32 gems | 10.8% | 71 | 73.3 | 0.97× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $25.77 39.64 gems | 4.9% | 76 | 73.3 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 15.0% | $7.02 10.8 gems | 1.3% | 70 | 73.3 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Incineration (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 30.0% | $2.42 3.72 gems | 0.9% | 141 | 146.7 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEnergetic Lion$87.69135 gems$162248 gems1.84x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $87.69 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.2%classified 17.8%covert 2.0%restricted 20.0%Ancient 15.0%red 15.0%remarkable 30.0%best hit $1,398 (15.94x)