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Dark Matter Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$132.07
203 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $118.85 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.02%
1,659 openings, odds method
Variance
24.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
110 openings · below min
7 days
79.29%±24.671,549 openings
30 days
78.02%±23.841,659 openings
since tracking started
78.02%±23.841,659 openings
-0.5%65.0%130.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h11037.41%±92.6—odds
7d1,54979.29%±24.7−0.9σodds
30d1,65978.02%±23.8−1.0σodds
All1,65978.02%±23.8−1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,709 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$6,793 10,450 gems28.6%58.50.59×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$5,575 8,577 gems23.5%68.50.70×
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,819 2,799 gems7.7%118.51.29×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,495 2,300 gems6.3%68.50.70×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,246 1,916 gems5.2%108.51.17×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$1,143 1,758 gems4.8%148.51.64×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$863 1,327 gems3.6%138.51.52×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$800 1,231 gems3.4%88.50.94×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$651 1,001 gems2.7%138.51.52×
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$611 940 gems2.6%58.50.59×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$527 810 gems2.2%68.50.70×
★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl1 in 200$414 636 gems1.7%108.51.17×
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl1 in 200$332 510 gems1.4%118.51.29×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$223 344 gems0.9%128.51.40×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$90.18 139 gems0.4%88.50.94×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified92.5%$6.44 9.9 gems5.0%1,5711580.80.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlSkyScar$132203 gems$6,79310,450 gems51.43x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlBeljit$132203 gems$6,79310,450 gems51.43x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$6,79310,450 gems51.43x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$6,79310,450 gems51.43x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$6,79310,450 gems51.43x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$5,5758,577 gems42.22x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlSkyScar$132203 gems$5,5758,577 gems42.22x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$5,5758,577 gems42.22x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$5,5758,577 gems42.22x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$5,5758,577 gems42.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$132203 gems$8631,327 gems6.53x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · ClassifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$132203 gems$6.449.9 gems0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$13290.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.0%legendary 1.5%Classified 92.5%best hit $6,793 (51.43x)