Dead End
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.03
63.12 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $36.92 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.88%
156 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 185 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 40 | $397 610 gems | 26.8% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 40 | $158 243 gems | 10.7% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $94.90 146 gems | 12.9% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $64.58 99.36 gems | 17.5% | 21 | 18.5 | 1.14× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $45.24 69.6 gems | 12.3% | 21 | 18.5 | 1.14× |
| AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $31.84 48.99 gems | 8.6% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.97× |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 10.0% | $18.04 27.75 gems | 4.9% | 20 | 18.5 | 1.08× |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $10.52 16.19 gems | 4.3% | 26 | 27.8 | 0.94× |
| MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet | 35.0% | $2.19 3.37 gems | 2.1% | 61 | 64.8 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$41.0363.12 gems$45.2469.6 gems1.10x
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$41.0363.12 gems$10.5216.19 gems0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $41.03 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 2.5%other 2.5%red 15.0%extraordinary 20.0%Legendary 10.0%classified 15.0%violet 35.0%best hit —