Death Wish
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.65
44.07 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.78 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.28%
3,596 openings, odds method
Variance
23.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,621 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalYRKV$28.6544.07 gems$3.585.5 gems0.12x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$28.6544.07 gems$3.585.5 gems0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.65 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.5%covert 4.5%pink 5.0%#8847ff 8.0%classified 8.0%Mythical 8.0%#4b69ff 18.0%restricted 18.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $1,855 (64.76x)