Deception
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.31
31.25 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $18.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.84%
2,058 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,080 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $633 974 gems | 17.3% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $321 493 gems | 17.5% | 20 | 20.8 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $190 293 gems | 20.8% | 54 | 41.6 | 1.30× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 40 | $104 160 gems | 14.2% | 41 | 52.0 | 0.79× |
| AUG | Copperhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $69.14 106 gems | 11.3% | 55 | 62.4 | 0.88× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $42.25 65 gems | 11.6% | 91 | 104.0 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $9.14 14.06 gems | 2.5% | 98 | 104.0 | 0.94× |
| Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 40.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 3.4% | 861 | 832.0 | 1.03× |
| Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue | 41.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 1.3% | 852 | 852.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertStoepsel123$20.3131.25 gems$633974 gems31.16x
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertkick.com/snupster$20.3131.25 gems$633974 gems31.16x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.31 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%extraordinary 3.0%Ancient 2.5%mil spec 3.0%classified 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 40.0%blue 41.0%best hit $633 (31.16x)