Decimal Drop
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.61
51.7 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.24 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.24%
4,198 openings, odds method
Variance
348.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4,198 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertkick.com/snupster$33.6151.7 gems$4,3766,732 gems130.2x
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertmattdavis213$33.6151.7 gems$4,3766,732 gems130.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $33.61 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.2%Ancient 0.1%Immortal 0.1%Legendary 0.2%pink 0.1%violet 99.0%best hit $10.7K (317.3x)