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Dedication

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$123.97
191 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $111.57 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.99%
531 openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
121 openings · below min
7 days
71.47%±32.32470 openings
30 days
69.99%±30.41531 openings
since tracking started
69.99%±30.41531 openings
26.5%90.8%155.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12190.86%±63.7—odds
7d47071.47%±32.3−1.1σodds
30d53169.99%±30.4−1.3σodds
All53169.99%±30.4−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 537 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$7,310 11,246 gems13.1%11.10.93×
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 333$3,721 5,725 gems10.0%11.60.62×
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$2,048 3,151 gems9.2%22.70.74×
MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$1,326 2,041 gems11.9%35.40.56×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$1,027 1,580 gems9.2%15.40.19×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$552 849 gems9.9%1010.70.93×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 50$295 453 gems5.3%910.70.84×
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$204 314 gems5.5%1416.10.87×
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 20$142 218 gems6.4%1826.80.67×
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted15.0%$86.30 133 gems11.6%9380.51.15×
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified15.0%$31.79 48.9 gems4.3%6680.50.82×
P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted25.0%$10.22 15.73 gems2.3%150134.21.12×
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert30.0%$5.35 8.23 gems1.4%169161.11.05×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert$1k LB - Code *STV*$124191 gems$7,31011,246 gems58.96x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$124191 gems$3,7215,725 gems30.02x
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$124191 gems$2,0483,151 gems16.52x
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$124191 gems$2,0483,151 gems16.52x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$124191 gems$1,3262,041 gems10.70x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDMTsmoker2K26$124191 gems$1,3262,041 gems10.70x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$124191 gems$1,3262,041 gems10.70x
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$124191 gems$1,0271,580 gems8.28x
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSurgest$124191 gems$552849 gems4.45x
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$124191 gems$552849 gems4.45x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified$124191 gems$31.7948.9 gems0.26x
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$124191 gems$86.30133 gems0.70x
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified$124191 gems$31.7948.9 gems0.26x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$1k LB - Code *STV*$124191 gems$295453 gems2.38x
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$124191 gems$86.30133 gems0.70x
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$124191 gems$86.30133 gems0.70x
P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$124191 gems$10.2215.73 gems0.08x
P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1k LB - Code *STV*$124191 gems$10.2215.73 gems0.08x
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$124191 gems$5.358.23 gems0.04x
P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$124191 gems$10.2215.73 gems0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$12490.00%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.7%contraband 0.3%classified 20.0%restricted 43.0%Restricted 5.0%best hit $7,310 (58.96x)