Demonic
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$123.27
190 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $110.94 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.47%
853 openings, odds method
Variance
21.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 904 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $4,077 6,272 gems | 73.5% | 19 | 18.1 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $364 560 gems | 9.8% | 22 | 27.1 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $125 193 gems | 5.6% | 57 | 45.2 | 1.26× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $53.51 82.33 gems | 4.8% | 100 | 90.4 | 1.11× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $21.02 32.34 gems | 3.8% | 191 | 180.8 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 25.0% | $7.72 11.88 gems | 1.7% | 198 | 226.0 | 0.88× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $2.10 3.23 gems | 0.7% | 317 | 316.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$123190 gems$7.7211.88 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$123190 gems$7.7211.88 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$123190 gems$2.103.23 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$123190 gems$125193 gems1.02x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$123190 gems$53.5182.33 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$123190 gems$125193 gems1.02x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$123190 gems$7.7211.88 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$123190 gems$53.5182.33 gems0.43x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGetDGN.com | Code: DGN$123190 gems$21.0232.34 gems0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $123 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 2.0%covert 3.0%classified 50.0%Ancient 10.0%restricted 35.0%best hit $4,077 (33.07x)