Deranged
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.53
79.27 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $46.37 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.29%
447 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 480 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 50 | $970 1,492 gems | 41.8% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $350 539 gems | 15.1% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $242 373 gems | 15.7% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $97.06 149 gems | 12.6% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $38.62 59.42 gems | 6.7% | 43 | 38.4 | 1.12× |
| MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $23.26 35.79 gems | 7.0% | 57 | 67.2 | 0.85× |
| Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $3.48 5.36 gems | 1.1% | 80 | 72.0 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Bum A Smokesticker · High Grade | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 228 | 240.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendarySTIANHAY$51.5379.27 gems$9701,492 gems18.82x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Bum A Smokesticker · High GradexCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$51.5379.27 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $51.53 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%Extraordinary 2.0%classified 3.0%industrial 6.0%restricted 22.0%covert 15.0%High Grade 50.0%best hit $970 (18.82x)