Desert Ops
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.80
67.39 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $39.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.53%
92 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 92 openings and 16.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11 | $168 259 gems | 38.4% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $111 171 gems | 25.3% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $79.23 122 gems | 18.1% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11 | $44.07 67.8 gems | 10.1% | 5 | 10.9 | 0.46× |
| M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $25.40 39.08 gems | 1.9% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 14 | $12.17 18.72 gems | 2.2% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× |
| P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.84 10.52 gems | 1.7% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× |
| Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 44.0% | $2.03 3.12 gems | 2.3% | 57 | 53.2 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$43.8067.39 gems$44.0767.8 gems1.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $43.80 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 18.0%covert 9.0%classified 19.0%industrial 3.0%violet 7.0%restricted 44.0%best hit —