Desert Sand
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.83
4.35 gems
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $2.54 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.68%
7,532 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,642 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 20 | $23.29 35.83 gems | 45.8% | 389 | 382.1 | 1.02× |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $17.13 26.36 gems | 33.7% | 385 | 382.1 | 1.01× |
| Nova | Quick Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1 | 10.0% | $3.81 5.86 gems | 15.0% | 740 | 764.2 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.82 2.8 gems | 3.6% | 391 | 382.1 | 1.02× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $0.36 0.55 gems | 1.4% | 768 | 764.2 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.3% | 1,544 | 1528.4 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.2% | 1,486 | 1528.4 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.1% | 1,939 | 1910.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.83 | 89.86% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 10.0%consumer 50.0%restricted 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%Consumer 20.0%best hit —