Desires

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10,125.93

15,578 gems

Advertised RTP

87.69%

EV $8,879.25 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

150.46%

54 openings, odds method

Variance

7.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

36 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

54 openings · below min

since tracking started

54 openings · below min

23.5%122.8%222.0%

Small sample. 54 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36	111.30%±86.9	—	odds
7d	36	111.30%±86.9	—	odds
30d	54	150.46%±71.0	—	odds
All	54	150.46%±71.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)knife	1 in 50	$137K 210,000 gems	30.7%	3	1.1	2.78×
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$127K 195,000 gems	28.5%	2	1.1	1.85×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon	1 in 50	$55.3K 85,000 gems	12.4%	1	1.1	0.93×
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 50	$34.1K 52,490 gems	7.7%	1	1.1	0.93×
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$29K 44,570 gems	6.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20	$12.6K 19,390 gems	7.1%	4	2.7	1.48×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20	$4,551 7,002 gems	2.6%	1	2.7	0.37×
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 20	$2,716 4,179 gems	1.5%	1	2.7	0.37×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 20	$1,423 2,190 gems	0.8%	1	2.7	0.37×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$842 1,295 gems	0.5%	3	2.7	1.11×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$531 817 gems	0.3%	4	2.7	1.48×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	15.0%	$381 586 gems	0.6%	8	8.1	0.99×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	15.0%	$197 303 gems	0.3%	12	8.1	1.48×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	15.0%	$100 154 gems	0.2%	7	8.1	0.86×
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	15.0%	$83.43 128 gems	0.1%	6	8.1	0.74×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)knife$10.1K15,578 gems$137K210,000 gems13.48x1h

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)knife$10.1K15,578 gems$137K210,000 gems13.48x7d

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$10.1K15,578 gems$127K195,000 gems12.52x1h

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$10.1K15,578 gems$127K195,000 gems12.52x7d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$10.1K15,578 gems$55.3K85,000 gems5.46x1h

Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$10.1K15,578 gems$34.1K52,490 gems3.37x1h

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$10.1K15,578 gems$12.6K19,390 gems1.24x1h

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableRodarius Marcell Green Jr II$10.1K15,578 gems$12.6K19,390 gems1.24x1h

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$10.1K15,578 gems$12.6K19,390 gems1.24x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$10.1K15,578 gems$12.6K19,390 gems1.24x1h

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$10.1K15,578 gems$2,7164,179 gems0.27x1h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$10.1K15,578 gems$381586 gems0.04x1h

Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$10.1K15,578 gems$34.1K52,490 gems3.37x1h

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$10.1K15,578 gems$531817 gems0.05x1h

★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertRodarius Marcell Green Jr II$10.1K15,578 gems$100154 gems0.01x1h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$10.1K15,578 gems$381586 gems0.04x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$10.1K15,578 gems$8421,295 gems0.08x1h

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryRodarius Marcell Green Jr II$10.1K15,578 gems$197303 gems0.02x1h

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$10.1K15,578 gems$197303 gems0.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$10.1K	87.69%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 4.0%covert 24.0%legendary 2.0%remarkable 10.0%contraband 5.0%#ffd700 5.0%classified 5.0%rare 15.0%extraordinary 15.0%covert knife 15.0%best hit $137K (13.48x)