Disgusting
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.82
53.57 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $31.34 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.72%
748 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 748 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $378 581 gems | 60.2% | 40 | 37.4 | 1.07× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $66.25 102 gems | 21.1% | 84 | 74.8 | 1.12× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $40.32 62.03 gems | 12.9% | 67 | 74.8 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Predator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $9.38 14.43 gems | 1.5% | 29 | 37.4 | 0.78× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $8.06 12.4 gems | 1.3% | 43 | 37.4 | 1.15× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.95 4.54 gems | 1.4% | 108 | 112.2 | 0.96× |
| Nova | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.52 2.34 gems | 1.0% | 147 | 149.6 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec | 30.0% | $0.61 0.94 gems | 0.6% | 230 | 224.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.82 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 5.0%covert knife 10.0%extraordinary 10.0%industrial 5.0%classified 5.0%restricted 15.0%consumer 20.0%milspec 30.0%best hit —