Do or Die
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,315.51
2,024 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,183.96 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.66%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $2,532 3,895 gems | 32.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $2,225 3,423 gems | 31.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 18.0% | $1,936 2,979 gems | 29.4% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.85× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 15.0% | $288 444 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 17.0% | $98.49 152 gems | 1.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 18.0% | $96.62 149 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,316 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 32.0%contraband 18.0%covert knife 15.0%Covert 35.0%best hit $2,225 (1.69x)