Double Down Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.37
49.8 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.13 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.07%
1,211 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,247 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $247 380 gems | 17.0% | 23 | 24.9 | 0.92× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 33 | $172 264 gems | 17.7% | 29 | 37.4 | 0.78× |
| AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $85.49 132 gems | 14.7% | 68 | 62.4 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $58.67 90.26 gems | 20.1% | 147 | 124.7 | 1.18× |
| SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray | 10.0% | $38.44 59.14 gems | 13.2% | 127 | 124.7 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $23.39 35.99 gems | 8.0% | 127 | 124.7 | 1.02× |
| FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777 | 10.0% | $12.56 19.32 gems | 4.3% | 105 | 124.7 | 0.84× |
| SG 553 | Traveler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $5.85 9 gems | 4.0% | 225 | 249.4 | 0.90× |
| SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 30.0% | $0.95 1.46 gems | 1.0% | 396 | 374.1 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeAggressive Moose$32.3749.8 gems$0.951.46 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $32.37 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 2.0%Industrial Grade 23.0%industrial 15.0%restricted 10.0%gray 10.0%#777777 10.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit —