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Double or Dust

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$46.86
72.1 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $42.18 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
224.94%
1,238 openings, odds method
Variance
785.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
316 openings · below min
7 days
1,097 openings · below min
30 days
1,238 openings · below min
since tracking started
1,238 openings · below min
-0.5%209.3%419.0%

Small sample. 1,238 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h31622.58%±309.0—odds
7d1,097252.77%±165.8—odds
30d1,238224.94%±156.1—odds
All1,238224.94%±156.1—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,341 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 2,000$58.5K 90,000 gems69.3%30.7—
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 667$2,329 3,583 gems8.3%12.00.50×
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$1,794 2,760 gems8.5%42.71.49×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$361 555 gems5.1%48.00.50×
Music Kit | Killer Mike, MICHAELmusic kit · uncommon12.0%$8.95 13.77 gems2.5%176160.91.09×
Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar*music kit · High Grade12.0%$6.39 9.83 gems1.8%169160.91.05×
Music Kit | TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lightsmusic kit12.0%$4.86 7.47 gems1.4%155160.90.96×
Music Kit | Freaky DNA, Vicimusic kit · 712.0%$3.37 5.19 gems1.0%171160.91.06×
Music Kit | ALRT, DOPAMINE HITmusic kit12.0%$2.28 3.51 gems0.6%155160.90.96×
Music Kit | Neck Deep, The Lowlife Packmusic kit · high12.0%$1.92 2.96 gems0.5%166160.91.03×
Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high12.0%$1.41 2.17 gems0.4%152160.90.94×
Music Kit | Noisia, Sharpenedmusic kit · blue15.0%$1.20 1.84 gems0.4%185201.20.92×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$46.8672.1 gems$58.5K90,000 gems1,248x
Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$46.8672.1 gems$58.5K90,000 gems1,248x
Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$46.8672.1 gems$58.5K90,000 gems1,248x
Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon♛Sean$46.8672.1 gems$2,3293,583 gems49.69x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$46.8672.1 gems$1,7942,760 gems38.28x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$46.8672.1 gems$1,7942,760 gems38.28x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$46.8672.1 gems$1,7942,760 gems38.28x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$46.8672.1 gems$1,7942,760 gems38.28x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Music Kit | TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lightsmusic kit$46.8672.1 gems$4.867.47 gems0.10x
Music Kit | TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lightsmusic kit$46.8672.1 gems$4.867.47 gems0.10x
Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$46.8672.1 gems$1.412.17 gems0.03x
Music Kit | ALRT, DOPAMINE HITmusic kit$46.8672.1 gems$2.283.51 gems0.05x
Music Kit | Freaky DNA, Vicimusic kit · 7$46.8672.1 gems$3.375.19 gems0.07x
Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high$46.8672.1 gems$1.412.17 gems0.03x
Music Kit | Killer Mike, MICHAELmusic kit · uncommon$46.8672.1 gems$8.9513.77 gems0.19x
Music Kit | Noisia, Sharpenedmusic kit · blue$46.8672.1 gems$1.201.84 gems0.03x
Music Kit | ALRT, DOPAMINE HITmusic kit( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$46.8672.1 gems$2.283.51 gems0.05x
Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high$46.8672.1 gems$1.412.17 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$46.8690.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 12.0%other 24.2%covert 0.8%uncommon 12.0%High Grade 12.0%high 24.0%blue 15.0%best hit $58.5K (1,248x)