Doug V2
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$133.09
205 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $119.78 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.08%
1,032 openings, odds method
Variance
28.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,032 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contrabandkick.com/davnh $300 RACE$133205 gems$3,8255,884 gems28.74x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $133 | 90.00% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.0%legendary 0.2%covert 7.9%contraband 0.2%extraordinary 1.5%exotic 0.5%classified 3.7%high 1.5%restricted 1.9%epic 2.7%consumer 79.9%best hit $6,435 (48.35x)