Down Bad Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.11
66.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $38.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.88%
322 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $278 427 gems | 35.8% | 21 | 17.6 | 1.20× |
| Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9 | 1 in 20 | $169 260 gems | 21.8% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $106 163 gems | 13.7% | 20 | 17.6 | 1.14× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $64.21 98.79 gems | 8.3% | 22 | 17.6 | 1.25× |
| M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $42.76 65.78 gems | 5.5% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 10.0% | $24.82 38.19 gems | 6.4% | 42 | 35.1 | 1.20× |
| Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $14.11 21.71 gems | 5.5% | 48 | 52.6 | 0.91× |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $5.86 9.02 gems | 2.3% | 54 | 52.6 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 35.0% | $0.96 1.48 gems | 0.9% | 112 | 122.8 | 0.91× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $43.11 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%#5E98D9 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 5.0%#87c7ff 10.0%mil spec 15.0%classified 15.0%consumer 35.0%best hit —