Dragon Degen
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$125.38
193 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $112.84 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.71%
110 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $7,811 12,017 gems | 13.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 500 | $6,045 9,300 gems | 10.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $4,583 7,052 gems | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $4,036 6,209 gems | 7.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $3,597 5,534 gems | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 99.0% | $61.31 94.32 gems | 53.8% | 109 | 108.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 99.8%legendary 0.2%best hit $4,036 (32.19x)