Drawing the REDLINE
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.53
20.81 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.99%
938 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.09% – 103.89%, 938 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 951 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $92.44 142 gems | 7.6% | 16 | 9.5 | 1.68× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $76.71 118 gems | 12.6% | 20 | 19.0 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $40.31 62.02 gems | 6.6% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 15.0% | $21.48 33.05 gems | 26.5% | 149 | 142.6 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $15.96 24.56 gems | 19.7% | 139 | 142.6 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.38 12.89 gems | 6.9% | 114 | 95.1 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.43 8.35 gems | 4.5% | 78 | 95.1 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 45.0% | $4.24 6.53 gems | 15.7% | 414 | 428.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$13.5320.81 gems$21.4833.05 gems1.59x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$13.5320.81 gems$21.4833.05 gems1.59x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $13.53 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 98.0%Legendary 2.0%best hit —