Dream Big
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.05
0.08 gems
Advertised RTP
85.79%
EV $0.04 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
124.20%
52.5K openings, odds method
Variance
5371.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $381 586 gems | 85.4% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.49× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 100.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 14.6% | 53,598 | 53600.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.05 | 85.79% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%consumer 100.0%best hit —