Dream On
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,187.33
1,827 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,068.59 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.47%
146 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $7,378 11,350 gems | 34.5% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $6,263 9,636 gems | 29.3% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,948 4,535 gems | 13.8% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,751 2,694 gems | 8.2% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $978 1,504 gems | 4.6% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $560 861 gems | 2.6% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $375 577 gems | 1.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $313 482 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 7.3 | 0.14× |
| AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $178 274 gems | 0.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $97.50 150 gems | 0.5% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog)weapon | 50.0% | $53.09 81.68 gems | 2.5% | 79 | 73.0 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,187 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%other 50.0%best hit $7,378 (6.21x)