Drippy Oasis?
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,371.75
3,649 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,134.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.07%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $55.8K 85,835 gems | 26.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 67 | $24.6K 37,866 gems | 17.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base | 1 in 40 | $13.2K 20,378 gems | 15.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $4,688 7,213 gems | 11.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 13 | $3,886 5,978 gems | 14.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $2,245 3,454 gems | 8.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $769 1,183 gems | 2.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 22.0% | $239 368 gems | 2.5% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 44.0% | $84.66 130 gems | 1.7% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.14× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$2,3723,649 gems$3,8865,978 gems1.64x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$2,3723,649 gems$3,8865,978 gems1.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2,372 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 44.0%legendary 9.5%base 2.5%extraordinary 44.0%best hit $13.2K (5.58x)