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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.98
15.36 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $8.98 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.67%
2,483 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,489 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $167 258 gems | 18.6% | 25 | 24.9 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $51.25 78.85 gems | 34.2% | 149 | 149.3 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $42.91 66.01 gems | 38.2% | 187 | 199.1 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy | 15.0% | $3.69 5.67 gems | 6.2% | 376 | 373.3 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 15.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 1.8% | 357 | 373.3 | 0.96× |
| Tec-9 | VariCamo (Well-Worn)weapon · 2 | 20.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.5% | 525 | 497.8 | 1.05× |
| Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 35.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.4% | 870 | 871.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$9.9815.36 gems$1.101.69 gems0.11x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecDeca DBOL/Trenbolone$9.9815.36 gems$1.101.69 gems0.11x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy$9.9815.36 gems$3.695.67 gems0.37x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$9.9815.36 gems$1.101.69 gems0.11x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy$9.9815.36 gems$3.695.67 gems0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.98 | 89.95% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 20.0%covert 1.0%classified 6.0%restricted 8.0%Heavy 15.0%milspec 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 35.0%best hit —