Drop Me Pls
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,051.36
3,156 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,846.22 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.06%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 20 | $8,336 12,825 gems | 22.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $8,336 12,825 gems | 22.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $7,754 11,930 gems | 21.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $1,803 2,773 gems | 7.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $1,510 2,324 gems | 6.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $1,316 2,024 gems | 5.3% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× |
| AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,014 1,560 gems | 5.5% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.31× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $934 1,437 gems | 5.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $361 555 gems | 2.4% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.85× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $171 263 gems | 1.2% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.62× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.5% | $93.98 145 gems | 0.9% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$2,0513,156 gems$8,33612,825 gems4.06x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$2,0513,156 gems$8,33612,825 gems4.06x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$2,0513,156 gems$8,33612,825 gems4.06x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$2,0513,156 gems$8,33612,825 gems4.06x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPalm Beach Pete$2,0513,156 gems$361555 gems0.18x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$2,0513,156 gems$8,33612,825 gems4.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2,051 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 5.0%legendary 5.0%covert 50.0%classified 27.5%restricted 12.5%best hit $8,336 (4.06x)