Drug War
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$127.17
196 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $114.45 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.83%
518 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 518 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $887 1,365 gems | 77.5% | 50 | 51.8 | 0.97× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 10.0% | $236 363 gems | 20.6% | 47 | 51.8 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $7.23 11.12 gems | 1.6% | 127 | 129.5 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Drug War Veteransticker · High Grade | 25.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 0.2% | 135 | 129.5 | 1.04× |
| SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $0.27 0.41 gems | 0.1% | 159 | 155.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $127 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%Extraordinary 10.0%mil spec 25.0%High Grade 25.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $887 (6.98x)